Date of Award

Summer 2026

Degree Type

Thesis

Director of Thesis

Joel Wooten

Second Reader

Karl Gregory

Abstract

This thesis analyzes payroll trends within Major League Baseball (MLB) across the last ten seasons (2015-2024). By examining spending habits across teams, several strategies have been identified, bucketing teams into profiles that allow for easier comparison and insight into optimizing roster construction.

Team success is measured through two statistics: Winning Percentage and Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Winning Percentage determines which teams succeeded each year, while WAR adds color to each team's record. WAR measures a player's value holistically. Essentially, it shows how many more wins he provides compared to a replacement level player. A replacement level player is a minor leaguer or fill-in free-agent that can step into the lineup on any given day. Individual salary and WAR data from each season were aggregated into a master file for analysis.

After producing visualizations and conducting hypothesis tests, this project contextualizes whether teams can overcome payroll disparity. The findings isolate spending strategies that successful teams use to maximize player performance. Teams should be asking how they can buy WAR, rather than buying wins. There are ways small market teams can compete in today's MLB; read more below.

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MLB Payroll & Performance Analysis

First Page

1

Last Page

32

Rights

© 2026, Ryan St.Clair

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