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Examining the Relationship between Actual Polarization and Voter Turnout in the United States

Abstract

The rise of polarization has created a sharp divide between the two main political parties in the United States. With the past few elections, it is evident this country has become more politically divided than ever. With an increase in this divide, we have seen record highs in voter turnout rates. This study attempts to answer the question of whether the presence of actual polarization within the United States affects voter turnout and how.

Some scholars have studied the effects of party polarization on vote choice, but there is still more to understand about the relationship between actual party polarization and its effect on voter turnout. Scholars have mainly focused on polarization at the individual level, with little attention to actual polarization within our legislation. As our legislation becomes more polarized and extreme, the political parties become more distinguishable.

When analyzing the cost and benefits perceived by an individual, this distinguishability and political extremisms may allow the individual to identify their party or candidate preferences, thus encouraging them to vote.

To test my hypotheses, I will compare the amount of polarization and voter turnout rates for each state during the 2020 presidential election. In addition to my independent and dependent variables, controls include other factors that might affect voter turnout such as level of educational attainment, per capita income, and state homogeneity. The findings of this study suggest an increase in polarization is associated with a decrease in voter turnout.

In addition to the polarization variable, the more homogenous a state is, the higher voter turnout rates are. The findings of this study will be beneficial in understanding what impacts voter turnout. Through this study, we can better predict voter turnout rates, as well as understand ways we can maximize voter turnout rates.

Keywords: polarization, homogeneity, voter turnout

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Mar 31st, 2:30 PM Mar 31st, 2:45 PM

Examining the Relationship between Actual Polarization and Voter Turnout in the United States

CASB 108 - History, Politics, and Sociology

The rise of polarization has created a sharp divide between the two main political parties in the United States. With the past few elections, it is evident this country has become more politically divided than ever. With an increase in this divide, we have seen record highs in voter turnout rates. This study attempts to answer the question of whether the presence of actual polarization within the United States affects voter turnout and how.

Some scholars have studied the effects of party polarization on vote choice, but there is still more to understand about the relationship between actual party polarization and its effect on voter turnout. Scholars have mainly focused on polarization at the individual level, with little attention to actual polarization within our legislation. As our legislation becomes more polarized and extreme, the political parties become more distinguishable.

When analyzing the cost and benefits perceived by an individual, this distinguishability and political extremisms may allow the individual to identify their party or candidate preferences, thus encouraging them to vote.

To test my hypotheses, I will compare the amount of polarization and voter turnout rates for each state during the 2020 presidential election. In addition to my independent and dependent variables, controls include other factors that might affect voter turnout such as level of educational attainment, per capita income, and state homogeneity. The findings of this study suggest an increase in polarization is associated with a decrease in voter turnout.

In addition to the polarization variable, the more homogenous a state is, the higher voter turnout rates are. The findings of this study will be beneficial in understanding what impacts voter turnout. Through this study, we can better predict voter turnout rates, as well as understand ways we can maximize voter turnout rates.

Keywords: polarization, homogeneity, voter turnout