Document Type
Article
Abstract
Background
Malaria is a major public health problem, with over half of the world’s population, primarily in sub-Saharan Africa, at risk. Climate change is already affecting the prevalence of malaria, in part by altering the distribution and density of mosquito vectors. This study assessed the relationship between climate variables and mosquito species distribution on malaria prevalence in Kenya from January 2019 to June 2021.
Methods
Data from 23 Kenyan counties were analyzed using mixed-effect regression, spatial analysis, correlation analysis, and the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) to select variables.
Results
Malaria prevalence was highest in the Lake Endemic (19%), followed by the Coastal Endemic (5%), semi-arid seasonal (2%), and low-risk (0.9%) malaria epidemiologic zones in 2020. Mosquito species distribution varied, with distinct ecological preferences observed with Anopheles gambiae dominated coastal and semi-arid areas, while Anopheles funestus was highest in the highland and lake zones. Regression analysis indicated that a combination of environmental factors and public health interventions, including insecticide-treated nets (ITN) coverage, was an important predictor of malaria prevalence. However, the relationship between these factors and malaria prevalence varied across regions and time periods.
Conclusion
This study provides insights into the spatial dynamics of mosquito species and their distribution in relation to malaria epidemiological zones in Kenya, thereby informing targeted control strategies.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
Publication Info
Published in Malaria Journal, Volume 25, 2026.
Rights
© The Author(s) 2026. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
APA Citation
Zablon, J. O., Goel, V., Giesbrecht, D., Kariuki, L., Mbogo, C., Goedel, W. C., Bailey, J. A., & Matoke-Muhia, D. (2026). Mapping mosquito diversity in Kenya correlating species distribution with malaria prevalence across varied climatic parameters. Malaria Journal, 25.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-025-05713-y