Document Type

Article

Abstract

False confession wrongful convictions (FCWCs) are a serious failure of the criminal justice system. Although scholars have identified interrogation tactics thought to elevate this risk, existing research rarely estimates the population-level probability that legally permissible methods will produce an FCWC. Instead, inference relies on outcome-selected case series and laboratory diagnosticity ratios that ignore base rates and the far larger universe of interrogations without false confessions. This article offers a methodological recalibration. We formalize the outcome-selection problem and apply inverse probability logic to derive posterior FCWC risk integrating base rates, sensitivity, and specificity. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we synthesize available empirical evidence across a wide parameter space. Across these specifications, median posterior estimates of the probability of a false confession wrongful conviction associated with lawful interrogation tactics cluster near 1 %. We conclude by introducing an Acceptability Curve that clarifies how normative judgments about tolerable error shape policy conclusions.

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2026.102600

Rights

© 2026 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

APA Citation

Mourtgos, S. M., & Adams, I. T. (2026). Recalibrating the risk of false confession wrongful convictions: Interrogation tactics and inverse probability. Journal of Criminal Justice, 103, 102600. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2026.102600

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