Document Type
Article
Abstract
Maintaining retention in care (RIC) for people living with HIV (PLWH) helps achieve viral suppression and reduce onward transmission. This study aims to identify the best machine learning model that predicts the RIC transition over time. Extracting from the enhanced HIV/AIDS reporting system, this study included 9765 PLWH from 2005 to 2020 in South Carolina. Transition of RIC was defined as the change of RIC status in each two–year time window. We applied seven classifiers, such as Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, eXtreme Gradient Boosting and Long–short–term memory, for each lagged response to predict the subsequent year's RIC transition. Classification performance was assessed using balanced prediction accuracy, the area under the curve (AUC), recall, precision and F1 scores. The proportion of the four categories of RIC transition was 13.59%, 29.78%, 9.06% and 47.57%, respectively. Support Vector Machine was the best approach for every lag model based on both the F1 score (0.713, 0.717 and 0.719) and AUC (0.920, 0.925 and 0.928). The findings could facilitate the risk augment of PLWH who are prone to follow–up so that clinicians and policymakers could come up with more specific strategies and relocate resources for intervention to keep them sustained in HIV care.
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
Publication Info
Published in AIDS Care - Psychological and Socio-Medical Aspects of AIDS/HIV, Volume 36, Issue 12, 2024, pages 1745-1753.
Rights
© 2024 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, and is not altered, transformed, or built upon in any way. The terms on which this article has been published allow the posting of the Accepted Manuscript in a repository by the author(s) or with their consent.
APA Citation
Cai, R., Yang, X., Ma, Y., Zhang, H. H., Olatosi, B., Weissman, S., Li, X., & Zhang, J. (2024). Use of machine learning approaches to predict transition of retention in care among people living with HIV in South Carolina: a real-world data study. AIDS Care, 36(12), 1745–1753.https://doi.org/10.1080/09540121.2024.2361245